Archive for the 'Market Data' Category
Anyone Interested in Seconds… A look at 2nd Quarter Sales Data..
June 24th, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Investing in Real Estate, Market Data
Second Quarter 2010 Single Family Home Sales Data:
| County | Total Sales | Total # Foreclosure | Total # of Short Sales | Distressed Sales expressed as % of Total Sales | Active listings | # Sales in 1 Month | Absorption Rate |
| Cook County | 6,215 | 1,803 | 568 | 38% | 19,288 | 2,521 | 7.65% |
| Lake County | 1,402 | 351 | 134 | 35% | 5,833 | 619 | 9.42% |
| McHenry County | 604 | 149 | 89 | 39% | 2,912 | 253 | 11.50% |
| Dupage County | 1,538 | 240 | 123 | 24% | 5,568 | 671 | 8.29% |
| Will County | 1,312 | 319 | 141 | 35% | 4,595 | 513 | 8.96% |
In the second quarter of 2010, Foreclosure Sales and Short Sales together represent 24% -39% of all sales in each of the five counties researched.
There are three (3) times as many foreclosures than Short Sales in the second quarter of (April-June) 2010.
The Real Estate Market is still a buyers market. In each of the five counties surveyed it is taking anywhere from 7 months -12 months to close on a home.
The next few quarters for the real estate market will be challenging for several reasons.
The First Time Home Owners Tax Credit Expired April 30, 2010 and fewer qualified buyers are looking to purchase a home even though Mortgage Interest Rates are at a all time low.
There is speculation of a Double Dip in the Real Estate Market as a result of more Foreclosures come on the market. Right now the “Shadow Inventory” of foreclosures is paying attention to the abosorption rates discussed above.
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What Me Worry?
June 23rd, 2010 categories: Market Data
“What Me Worry?” was the phrase used in Mad Magazine and I think it is appropriate here.
They say bad news comes in threes:
First, the National Association of Realtors reported existing homes sales dipped 2.2% last month.
Second, the National Association Of Home Builders shows sales of new homes dropped a record 32.7% in May. This is the lowest level in four decades.
Finally, the Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage applications dropped off by 5.9% even when mortgages are at a all time low.
All three indicate the real estate market is struggling after the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit expired April 30, 2010.
Lets hope there is a silver lining somewhere for real estate in the near future.
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New Study On Illinois Foreclosure reveals…
April 29th, 2010 categories: Ask the "Specialist", Market Data
The Woodstock Intstitute releases new study on Foreclosures in Illinios and the results do not look favorable.
According to this new study, there were 9,302 completed foreclosure auctions in the first quarter in the region. This number was the largest number recorded in a quarter since 2006.
This number represents a 56% jump when compared to the first quarter in 2009. Within a six county region, Kane County saw the largest increase with a 122% year over year completed foreclosure auctions.
According to the Woodstock Institute the reason for the increase in Foreclosure auctions maybe the result of the statewide moratorium on foreclosures in support of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). In January the moratorium was lifted.
It also appears from early data on HAMP that 50% of all loan modifications fail. As they fail lenders have no other recourse but to begin the foreclosure process.
Geoff Smith of the Woodstock Institute asks ” Did the moratorium help borrowers in the end?” “Are these foreclosure provention programs working” ” If HAMP was working you’d have less completed foreclosures.”
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2009 Foreclosure Data: Impact on 5 Counties in Illinois
December 5th, 2009 categories: Ask the "Specialist", Market Data
On Wednesday December 9 and Thursday December 10, 2009 I will be attending a Mortgage Foreclosure Conference in Chicago. This event is being sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, The Chicago Community Trust, John D and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago, and the Woodstock Institute.
The conference event is titled ” Mortgage Foreclosure Policy: Past, Present, and Future”. The conference will discuss the evolution, current impact, and likely outcomes of foreclosure on homeowners, lenders, housing counselors, secondary mortgage market, and local governments.
As I prepare for this conference I decided to do a little review of the foreclosure market from a point of view as a realtor. I decided to do research on five counties ( Cook, Lake, McHenry, Dupage, Will, and Kane) in Illinois. I plan to bring along and discuss this data at the convention.
The information is deemed to be reliable and comes from both my local MLS and Record Information Services of Illinois.
Single Family Home Sales data from January 1, 2009 through December 3, 2009:
| County | Total Sales | Total # Foreclosure Re-Sales | Total # of Short Sales | Distressed Sales expressed as % of Total Sales | |
| Cook County | 20,730 | 6,761 | 2,098 | 43% | |
| Lake County | 4,362 | 1,073 | 459 | 35% | |
| McHenry County | 2,023 | 451 | 307 | 37% | |
| Dupage County | 4,865 | 782 | 527 | 27% | |
| Will County | 4,409 | 1,170 | 529 | 39% | |
| Kane County | 2,973 | 671 | 414 | 36% |
The table above shows foreclosures are dominating the Real Estate Market in terms of total sales. Foreclosures out number the number Short Sales in every county.
Single Family Foreclosure from January 1, 2009 through December 3, 2009
| County | Total #of Foreclosures | Total # Foreclosure Re-Sold | Remaining # to be Sold |
| Cook County | 12,553 | 6,761 | 5,792 |
| Lake County | 1,841 | 1,073 | 763 |
| McHenry County | 1,243 | 451 | 792 |
| Dupage County | 2,368 | 782 | 1,586 |
| Will County | 3,095 | 1,170 | 1925 |
| Kane County | 2,368 | 671 | 1,697 |
The table above is showing total number of foreclosures in each county and then subtracts the number of foreclosures put back on the market and re-sold to new buyers and the number of remaining foreclosures unsold to date. As the data suggests there are more foreclosures that are going to be coming onto the market for re-sale.
Single Family Pre-Foreclosures from January 1, 2009 through December 3, 2009
| Cook County | Total # of Pre-foreclosure Notices | Total # Unsold Foreclosures | Total # Potential Foreclosures 2010 | Total# Home Sold in 2009 |
| Cook County | 23,629 | 5,792 | 29,421 | 20,730 |
| Lake County | 3,344 | 768 | 4,112 | 4,362 |
| McHenry County | 2,123 | 792 | 2,915 | 2,023 |
| Dupage County | 3,758 | 1,586 | 5,344 | 4,865 |
| Will County | 4,984 | 1,925 | 6,909 | 4,984 |
| Kane County | 4,008 | 1,697 | 5,705 | 2,973 |
The Table above shows the number of homes who have received some sort of Pre-foreclosure Notice.
Typically a homeowner has to be 90 days past due or delinquent on their mortgage to receive such Notice of Default (NOD).
While many of these homeowners may be trying to modify their mortgage with their lender and never go to foreclosure there are many homeowners unable to modify their mortgage because they are unemployed.
As the data suggests if these pre-foreclosures do become foreclosures and are added to the already unsold foreclosure on the market the combined total will exceed the total sales of single family homes for 2009.
As a realtor it is difficult to see how the real estate market is going to keep pace with the number of foreclosures. There isn’t enough buyers out there to absorb the number of homes that could potentially come on the market in 2010.
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How The Real Estate Market Affected One Middle Class Community
December 1st, 2009 categories: Market Data
I decided to write about one particular middle class community. This community is a microcosm look at the 2009 real estate market. As we look back at the year we will notice some challenges this community faces.
These challenges are not unique to this community but emphasize the struggle most communities struggled with in 2009.
| Community Facts | Most Recent Statistics |
| Number of Residents | 12,359 |
| Number of Households | 4,343 |
| Percent Owner Occupied | 92% |
| Median Family Income | $83,657 |
| Average Home Price 2009 | $394,767 |
The information above provides the basic information on a typical middle class community. The name shall remain anonymous for many reasons. The name is not important, what is important is how a typical middle class community is being affected by foreclosures.
2009 Real Estate Market (Information is deemed to be reliable and comes from the MLS)
| Sales Type | # of Active Listings | # Pending Sales | # of Single Family Sales |
| Totals | 101 | 25 | 88 |
| Short Sales | 14 | 7 | 11 |
| Bank Owned | 3 | 0 | 22 |
| % Distressed | 17% | 28% | 38% |
As we can see from the table above 17% of all active listings are either Short Sales or Bank owned properties and foreclosures represent 38% of all sales during the last year.
According to Record Information Services, a Real Estate Service that searches public information and tracks foreclosures in all counties in Illinios, there were 42 homes in this community that went into foreclosure.
Only half of these homes 22 have come back on the market and have re-sold according to the MLS. Another 20 homes are waiting to come on the market.
If all of these foreclosures were to enter the market at the same time the number of Active Foreclosures would increase from 17% to 30% of all Active listings.
What affect does this number of foreclosures have on a middle class community?
Well it will definitely bring down prices of homes. According to the MLS the average sale price of a home has declined 15% in this community in 2009.
What will the outlook be for 2010? We will just have to wait and see…
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Is there A relationship between Foreclosures and Unemployment?
October 27th, 2009 categories: Market Data
Is there a correlation between the number of Foreclosures and Unemployment. Can we assume that those States with more unemployment will have more Foreclosures?
Below are the ranks for the Top 10 Foreclosure States according to Realty Trac. Illinois is listed as 10th by Realty Trac but other poles show Maryland as 10th and Illinois slipping to 12th.
1 out of every House Holds (HH) is the number of family households that has received a foreclosure notice. This information came from a recent CNBC poll.
The unemployment data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
From the data we can understand why Michigan is listed as number 1 in terms of unemployment with the loss of jobs from the automobile industry in Detroit by why are they ranked 8th in terms of unemployment. Will there be more foreclosures in Michigan due to the high unemployment?
Nevada is Ranked number 1 in Foreclosures and Number 2 in terms of unemployment. These statistics make sense.
Yet Rhode Island which is ranked 3 in terms of unemployment at 13% does not even make the top 10 list in terms of Foreclosures. What is Rhode Island doing that other states are not?
In contrast Utah which is 6th on the list of states with the most Foreclosures (1 out 251 households) has the lowest unemployment rate at 6.2 %.
It appears the statistics are inconclusive when it comes to a coorelation between State Rank in Foreclosures and Unemployment Rate.
| Foreclosure Rank | State | 1 out of every # of HH | Unemployment Rank | State % Unemployment |
| 1 | Nevada | 1-59 | 2 | 13.3% |
| 2 | Arizona | 1-179 | 22 | 9.1% |
| 3 | Calif | 1-154 | 4 | 12.2% |
| 4 | Florida | 1-158 | 8 | 11.0% |
| 5 | Idaho | 1-250 | 26 | 8.5% |
| 6 | Utah | 1-251 | 51 | 6.2% |
| 7 | Georgia | 1-265 | 14 | 10.1% |
| 8 | Michigan | 1-270 | 1 | 15.3% |
| 9 | Colorado | 1-342 | 39 | 7% |
| 10 | Illinois | 1-363 | 12 | 10.5% |
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Pending Home Sales are The Highest Level Since March 2007
October 1st, 2009 categories: Investing in Real Estate, Market Data, Short Sales
Pending Home Sales are at the Highest Level Since March 2007. Short Sales and Complex Appraisals are causing delays in home sales from closing.
| County | # of Pending Sales | # of Pending Short Sales | % of Total Pending Sales | # of Short Sales Pending 100 + Days | % of Short Sales Pending 100+ Days |
| Cook | 5689 | 1058 | 19% | 700 | 66% |
| Lake | 1039 | 221 | 21% | 169 | 76% |
| Dupage | 1169 | 205 | 18% | 169 | 82% |
| Mchenry | 578 | 156 | 27% | 116 | 74% |
| Will | 1116 | 156 | 14% | 136 | 87% |
| Kane | 820 | 169 | 21% | 135 | 80% |
Summary:
Short Sales represent 14%-27% of all Pending Sales in all five counties.
66%-87% of all Short Sales are taking 100+ days to close.
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Time is of the Essence
September 24th, 2009 categories: Market Data
During the past six (6) months we continue to see high volume of foreclosures in all five (5) counties.
What appears to be shifting is the number of foreclosure sales versus the number of short sales.
The reason for the increase in foreclosures can be explained in different ways.
One would expect the number of foreclosures to increase when the State Moratorium on Foreclosures was lifted.
Another reason is buyers in general are not willing to wait for a Short Sale to be approved by a bank and are looking to get the best price and are opting to purchase Bank Owned properties.
| County | # of Sales | # of Short Sales | # of Bank Foreclosures | % Short Sales | % Bank Owned |
| Cook | 12,297 | 966 | 4,431 | 8% | 36% |
| Lake | 2,655 | 234 | 706 | 9% | 27% |
| McHenry | 1177 | 160 | 270 | 14% | 23 |
| Dupage | 2,972 | 274 | 505 | 09% | 17 |
| Will | 2563 | 254 | 758 | 10% | 30 |
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Foreclosures Are What People are Buying!!!
July 2nd, 2009 categories: For Buyers, Investing in Real Estate, Market Data
The second quarter statistics are showing that new Buyers are buying Foreclosures at a steady pace.
Almost 4 out of 10 sales in the second quarter of 2009 have been foreclosures.
The number of foreclosure continues to attract new home buyers.
| County | # of Single Family Sales | # of Short Sales | # of Bank Foreclosures | Percent of Total |
| Cook | 5606 | 426 | 2150 | 47 % |
| Lake | 1212 | 114 | 343 | 38% |
| McHenry | 578 | 79 | 140 | 38% |
| Dupage | 1363 | 233 | 137 | 37% |
| Kane | 796 | 93 | 204 | 37% |
| Will | 1216 | 127 | 398 | 43% |
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Fact or Crap about Short Sales
June 3rd, 2009 categories: Market Data
Are the following statements fact or crap:
“A large percentage of Short Sales never Close”
“Short Sales take too long to Close”
“Banks will receive less money after a Foreclosure than with a Short Sale”
It was these three statements that made me do research and search for the truth about Short Sales and Foreclosures.
The following chart examined only closed transaction for the past 12 months in five different communities in five different counties in Illinois.
The Average Sale Price Sold is the average of lowest price and higest price sold during the 12 months.
The Average Market Time is the average time of lowest price and highest price sold during the 12 months.
| City, County | # of Sales | Avg Sale Price | Avg Market Time |
| Skokie, Cook Co. | |||
| Short Sales | 36 | $249,000 | 173 |
| Foreclosures | 6 | $238,000 | 53 |
| Round Lake, Lake Co. | |||
| Short Sales | 104 | $131,000 | 115 |
| Foreclosures | 79 | $105,000 | 63 |
| Woodstock,Mchenry Co. | |||
| Short Sales | 19 | $139,500 | 55 |
| Foreclosures | 10 | $161,500 | 68 |
| Naperville, Dupage Co | |||
| Short Sales | 40 | $288,000 | 164 |
| Foreclosures | 15 | $202,500 | 21 |
| Joliet, Will Co | |||
| Short Sales | 123 | $103,000 | 176 |
| Foreclosures | 77 | $97,000 | 11 |
“Short Sales Do Not Close”- This statement is Crap. In all five communities more Short Sales closed than Foreclosures.
“Short Sales Take Longer to Close”- This statement is Fact. In four out of the five communities it did take longer to close a Short sale than a foreclosure.
“Banks will receive less Money from a Foreclosure than a Short Sale”- This statement is Fact. Four out of five communities surveyed banks did in fact receive less money after the foreclosure.
Woodstock, IL was the only community where a foreclosure commanded a higher sale price than did a Short Sale. There are many reasons why this could happen and would need to be further explored before any conclusion can be made about this community.
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